Archive for December, 2011

My technology predictions for 2012

December 22, 2011

There are a number of technologies which will be in the limelight during the year of 2012. Last year, I struggled to pick one among 3 (Mobile payments, Web-TV, Check-in sites) technologies. Usage of check-in’s did not pick up as much as one thought. The first two reappear in the list below since they still have a long way to go. This year, I am hedging my bets on the six below that I feel will be discussed across the world.

  1. Cloud. Probably a no-brainer for most of us but I expect it to get mature in the next year and more standards to come in place. Hopefully the lessons learnt during the SOA-hype will be used by the Cloud vendors to ensure that they fall into a similar trap. With a not-so-encouraging financial climate, organizations will try and go for the cloud and fail (if they don’t read the fine print)
  2. Rise of the Consumer Devices. Not just the tablet, the television will occupy a higher status of attention from all the biggies. Apple and Google are in the race to release their internet TV‘s. Pay-TV model itself will move from the current package-based to a realistic model (not dissimilar to the mobile plans)
  3. Mobile payment will increase – Google (again) Wallet will increase adoption of payment by the hand-helds. Maturity in the NFC technology will be slow (2013 maybe) but a lot more sound-bytes will be heard
  4. Mainframe technology will make a big comeback when organizations will realize that there is so much capacity available within their existing hardware.
  5. Social Networking scene will have a consolidation. Maybe an acquisition of a big player?
  6. Analytics will pick up in a big way as organizations try to increase their sales by going through consumer behavior.

What do you think of these technologies? Do you see any other technologies that will overtake these?

Will the Mainframe ever go away?

December 15, 2011

When I started my career, everyone said “The mainframe is dying“. I still hear the same comment today as well.

This was a comment that I heard yesterday from my colleague who is 20 years old in the IT industry. Application Transformation, Legacy Modernization are buzz-words that one hear in the industry but have the mainframes retired? Not at all. I heard another colleague say that 499 of the Top Fortune-500 companies have a mainframe. Why then is the talk still heard about the Mainframe going away? Are the Modernization exercises successful? Very rarely.

One hears that Mainframe developers are retiring and hence more firms are planning to move out of the Mainframe. Will they ever do it? All discussions about retiring the mainframe are mainly because there are no skills in the market. Looking at the robustness of the solution deployed, why do organizations even think of changing the technology.

Is Offshoring the best solution then? Maybe. Most of the Indian IT firms have tonnes of developers in the Mainframe technologies. New joinees are given training in multiple technologies – Java, Microsoft, Mainframe. Thus, there are enough developers who can support the Mainframe. If so, why bother moving out?

Do you agree? If not, what is your opinion?


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